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Economic sentiment indicator in December 2020

Economic sentiment indicator in December 2020

Last update: 28.12.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 28.12.2020

In December, the seasonally adjusted three-months moving average of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI), slightly decreased again by 0,7 points to 85,9. The confidence increased significantly in services, slightly in trade and among consumers and  marginally in construction. In spite of that, it considerably dropped in industry. ESI is currently lagging behind the value of the corresponding period by 12 points and it is below the level of the long-term average by 17,4 points.

 

In December, the confidence indicator in industry decreased by 7,3 percentage points (p. p.) to -0,3 after seasonal adjustment. The development of the indicator was influenced mainly by the deteriorated trend of industrial production over the next three months and the increase of the goods stock. In December compared with the previous month, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in construction increased by 0,5 points to -47,5 due to more favourable evaluations of the overall level of orders. The current result is below the long-term average by 23,5 points. In December compared with November, confidence indicator in trade rose by 2 p. p. to 3,3 due to more positive evaluations of the current as well as the expected business activities (from seasonally adjusted data). In December, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in services significantly increased, its value (-16,7) rose by 12,3 percentage points compared with November. The indicator´s development was affected mainly by optimistic expectations of the demand and the evaluation of the current business situation.

 

At the beginning of December, the consumer mood in Slovakia was slightly more optimistic than in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted indicator of consumer confidence, increased month-on-month by 2 points to -32,6. After the previous three-month deterioration, the indicator improved, however, it is still below the level of pre-coronavirus pandemic. Compared to the previous month, respondents were slightly more optimistic in the expectations of unemployment, the general economic situation, financial situation of households as well as in the household savings. Compared with the situation last year, the respondents were more pessimistic by 22,2 points and the current result is below the long-term average by 13,6 points.


The surveys for economic branches were conducted from 1. to 18. December and the consumer survey from 1. to 9. December, therefore impacts of tighter measures against the spread of coronavirus in the second half of the month were only partially captured in the data.

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