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Trade confidence indicator in July 2020

Trade confidence indicator in July 2020

Last update: 29.07.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.07.2020

In July compared with June, confidence indicator in trade dropped by 0,3 percentage points (p.p.) to -1,3 due to negative evaluations of the expected business activities and the stock of goods (from seasonally adjusted data).

61 % of respondents assessed the trend in business activities over the past three months as favourable or unchanged. The seasonally adjusted balance (-14) increased by 2 p.p. compared with June. In spite of that, negative evaluations (weighted by turnover) prevail in all sectors of retail trade, except retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 100 and more people and in all regions, except Nitra, Žilina and Banská Bystrica. The level of stock (6) increased by 1 p.p. month-on-month and 91 % of respondents assess it to be normal to the season. 33 % of respondents plan to increase requirements for suppliers (unchanged situation), 11 % of respondents reported a decrease (by 4 % less than in the survey conducted in June) and 56 % of enterprises assume a stabilised development (by 4 % more). The final seasonally adjusted balance (19) increased by 6 p.p. in this indicator. Respondents will increase orders in all sectors of retail trade, except the retail sale of motor vehicles, in all size groups and in all regions, except Trenčín. When evaluating the expected business activities over the next three months, respondents were more pessimistic than last month, therefore the balance in July (16) decreased by 2 p.p. An increase of business activities is expected by 30 % of enterprises (by 12 % less than in the survey conducted in June), 57 % of enterprises assume a stable development (by 15 % more) and 13 % of respondents expect a decrease (by 3 % less). In spite of that, positive evaluations prevail in all sectors of retail sale, in all size groups except enterprises employing 11 to 19 people and in all regions, except Trenčín. Compared with June, a decrease is assumed in the employment development, the seasonally adjusted balance decreased by 5 p.p. to -1. The majority of respondents (77 %) do not expect any changes, 13 % expect an increase in the number of employees and 10 % expect a decrease of employment. Employees are not expected to be hired in all retail trade sectors, except retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco and in all size groups, except enterprises employing 100 and more people. In territorial terms, the number of employees will not be increased in all regions, except Trenčín and Nitra. When evaluating the expected development of prices, the majority of respondents (78 %) assume it will remain unchanged, which is by 6 % less than in the previous month. An increase of prices is assumed by 17 % of respondents (by 8 % more than in the survey conducted in June) and a decrease by 5 % of enterprises (by 2 % less). The final balance (11) increased by 8 p.p. compared with the previous month. A price increase is expected by respondents in all sectors of retail trade, except the repair of motor vehicles and retail sale of other goods, by size groups, in enterprises employing 50 to 99 people. In territorial terms, a price rise is assumed by respondents in all regions, except Trenčín.


Note: *In July 2020 377 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade. The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.

 

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