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Economic sentiment indicator in March 2021

Economic sentiment indicator in March 2021

Last update: 30.03.2021
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 30.03.2021

In March, the economic sentiment in Slovakia was significantly more optimistic than last month. The seasonally adjusted economic sentiment indicator (ESI), increased by 7,9 points to 85,6. After a significant deterioration in the last two months, it has thus returned to the level of December last year, however, it still does not reach its pre-coronavirus pandemic level. Confidence has increased very significantly in services, slightly in trade, among consumers and in industry. By contrast, it slightly decreased in construction. The current IES is by 11,6 points worse than in the corresponding period last year and it is below the long-term average of 16,9 points.

In March, the confidence indicator in industry increased after seasonal adjustment by 1,6 percentage points (p. p.) to -3,7. The indicator´s development was favourably influenced mainly by the expected increase of the production over the next three months. In March compared with the previous month, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in construction dropped by 1 point to -48,0 due to more unfavourable evaluations of the expected employment. The current result is below the long-term average by 24 points. In March compared with February, confidence indicator in trade rose by 2 percentage points to 3,0. The increase was affected mainly by the positive evaluations of the current, as well as the expected business activities (from seasonally adjusted data). A more significant growth of the indicator was hampered by the higher goods stock. In March, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in services increased again, after the two-month decrease, its value (-9) rose by 22,7 p. p. compared with February. The indicator´s development was affected mainly by more optimistic evaluations of all its three components, while the expected demand was evaluated the most favourably by the respondents.

At the beginning of March, the consumer mood in Slovakia was slightly more optimistic than in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted indicator of consumer confidence increased by 1,9 points to -36,5, month-on-month. The indicator thus slightly improved again, after the previous two-month deterioration, however it is still well below the pre-coronavirus pandemic level, close to the values during the first anti-pandemic measures last spring. Compared to the previous month, respondents were slightly more optimistic in their expectations of the financial situation of households, general economic situation and household savings. In their expectations of unemployment they were slightly more pessimistic. Compared to the situation last year, the respondents were more pessimistic by 28,7 points and the current result is below the long-term average by 16,7 points.

 


Note: The values of the confidence indicator range from -100 (responses of all respondents are maximally pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are maximally optimistic). Data are seasonally adjusted.

 

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