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Industrial confidence indicator in July 2020

Industrial confidence indicator in July 2020

Last update: 29.07.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.07.2020

In July, the confidence indicator in industry increased by 5 p.p. (percentage points) to the value -5 (from seasonally adjusted data). The development of the indicator was influenced mainly by the expected increase of the production over the next three months.

Compared with the previous month, the industrial production trend rose by 54 p.p. to -23. An increase was registered in all industrial sectors, mainly in manufacture of other non-metallic products, machinery and equipment n.e.c. and transport equipment. The balance of the aggregate orders remained at the same level (value -45). A decrease of orders was recorded mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, other non-metallic products and wood and paper products. 42 % of respondents consider the current level of orders to be sufficient. The balance of foreign orders recorded a decrease, by 2 p.p. to -38. A decrease was registered in four sectors, mainly in manufacture of transport equipment and textiles and apparel. On the contrary, an increase was in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, other non-metallic products and electrical equipment. The share of respondents considering the level of foreign orders to be sufficient was 50 %. In July compared with June, the balance of the finished goods stock decreased by 5 p.p. to  4. A decrease of the stock of goods was reported mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products, basic metal and fabricated metal products and electrical equipment. On the contrary, the goods stock increased mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel. The total stock is considered to be sufficient by 90 % of respondents. In July compared with June, the balance of the expected production over the next three months, increased by 10 p.p. to 34, representing the highest value since February 2017. The greatest optimists were the respondents in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, textiles and apparel and other non-metallic products; by size groups in enterprises employing 20 to 99 people and by regions mainly in Trnava and Košice. Over the next three-months period compared with June, the balance of the expected development of industrial products prices increased by 9 p.p. to -4. A price rise is assumed mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, basic metal and fabricated metal products and wood and paper products. A price drop is comsidered mainly by the respondents in the chemical industry. Over the next three months period, the majority of enterprises (94 %) do not expect any changes in the price level of their own products. In the employment  development the situation improved compared with the previous month, when the balance increased by 11 p.p. to -23. An increase of the employment is assumed mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, electrical equipment and wood and paper products; by size groups, in enterprises employing 1000 and more people and by regions in Prešov and Nitra. On the contrary, a decrease of the employment is assumed mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel.

When evaluating the factors limiting the growth of industrial production, 64 % of respondents reported insufficient demand and 19 % financial constraints. 21 % of respondents do not feel any limiting factors. Production capacity rose by 20 p.p. to 24. The majority of respondents (56 %) consider their current production capacity to be sufficient. Based on orders, companies have reserved work for 5 months on average, while production is ensured mainly in manufacture of electrical equipment and machinery and equipment n.e.c. Industrial companies used production capacities to 78 %, on average. Over the last three months, according to the respondents´ forecasts, there was an upward demand for production, based on new orders, the total balance increased by 65 points, compared with the previous month. The highest increase was mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, transport equipment and other non-metallic products. A decrease of orders was only in manufacture of textiles and apparel and wood and paper products. Compared with the previous quarter, the balance of the expected export also rose by 6 points. An increase of foreign orders is expected by respondents mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, other non-metallic products and electrical equipment. A decrease of the export is assumed only in manufacture of pharmaceutical products and in the chemical industry. According to the survey results, the position of enterprises in domestic competitive environment deteriorated compared with the previous quarter, when the balance decreased by 19 points to -12. On foreign markets inside the EU, the balance dropped by 26 p.p. to -17, on markets outside the EU, the balance rose by 1 point to -18.


Note: *In June 2020, 486 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole industry. The values of the confidence indicator in industry and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic) however, the balance of the finished goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.

 

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