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Trade confidence indicator in April 2021

Trade confidence indicator in April 2021

Last update: 29.04.2021
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.04.2021


In April, confidence indicator in trade continued to increase, to the level 10,3 (by 7,3 p.p.). The increase was affected mainly by the positive evaluations of the expected business activities (from seasonally adjusted data). A more significant growth of the indicator is hampered by the higher goods stock.

Only 23 % of respondents assessed the trend in business activities over the past three months as unfavourable, which is by 5 p.p. less than in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted balance (9) increased by similarly by 5 p.p. compared with March. Positive evaluations (weighted by turnover) prevail mainly in retail sale of ICT equipment and in retail sale with other household goods in specialised stores. Positive trends prevail in enterprises employing 20 to 49 people, and in the regions of Nitra and Žilina. The level of the goods stock (7)  remained almost unchanged month-on-month, though 91 % of respondents asses it to be normal to the season.

In the evaluation of the requirements for suppliers, an optimism of respondents is reflected which was manifested in the increase of the seasonally adjusted balance by 10 p.p. to 24. Increased requirements for suppliers are expected by respondents in retail sale of automotive fuel and in stores with other household goods. A similar trend is assumed by enterprises employing 100 and more people and by regions, mainly in Nitra and Žilina.

When evaluating the expected business activities over the next three months, optimism continued to grow. Compared with March, the seasonally adjusted balance (29) rose by 15 p.p. The growth of the business activities over the next three months is expected mainly in retail sale of other household goods and in retail sale of cultural and recreational goods. By size groups, in enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and by regions mainly in Žilina and Košice.

In the field of employment, the evaluations of retail enterprises (weighted by the number of employees) are almost unchanged, compared with March. The seasonally adjusted balance was lower by 1 p.p. (6). There was a higher share of respondents (87 %) not considering any changes, who are expecting an employment growth (8 %). Only enterprises in sale of ICT equipment in specialised stores and in retail sale of other household goods in specialised stores expect a slightly higher number of employees. A similar trend is expected by enterprises employing 100 and more people and by regions, in Prešov and Košice.

Compared with the previous periods, the evaluation of the expected development of prices has not changed very much, 86 % of respondents (by 16 p.p. more than in March) assume a stabilised level of goods prices. The final seasonally adjusted balance (15) dropped by 1 p.p., compared with March. A price increase is assumed mainly by respondents in retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco in specilised stores and in retail sale of cultural and recreational goods. The highest share of respondents expecting an increase of goods prices is in enterprises employing 100 and more people and by regions, in Žilina.

Note: * In April 2021 323 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade. The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way.
Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.

 

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