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Industrial confidence indicator in April 2021

Industrial confidence indicator in April 2021

Last update: 29.04.2021
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.04.2021



In April, the confidence indicator in industry increased by 14 p.p. (percentage points-p.p.) to 10,3 (from seasonally adjusted data). The indicator´s development was influenced by the increase of the production and by the increase of orders.

Compared with the previous month, the industrial production trend rose by 16 p.p. to 33. An increase was registered in the majority of groups, mainly in manufacture of transport equipment, food and electrical equipment. The balance of the aggregate orders increased by 17 p.p. to -1. An increase of orders was recorded mainly in manufacture of other non-metallic products, textiles and apparel and food. A decrease of orders was stated mainly by respondents in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products. The balance of foreign orders experienced a growth by 13 p.p. to 6. An increase was recorded in manufacture of food, textiles and apparel and other manufacture, repair and installation. On the contrary, a decrease was recorded mainly in the chemical industry and in manufacture of transport equipment. In April compared with the previous month, the balance of the finished goods stock remained at the same level (8). A decrease of the goods stock was indicated mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel, other non-metallic products and in the chemical industry. On the contrary, there was an increase of goods stock mainly in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products and machinery and equipment n.e.c. In April compared with March, the balance of the expected production over the next three months, increased by 25 p.p. to 40, which is the highest value since May 2007. The greatest optimists were the respondents in the chemical industry, in manufacture of wood and paper products and in other manufacture, repair and installations; by size groups, in enterprises employing 500 to 999 people and by regions mainly in Nitra and Prešov. Over the next three months period, the balance of the expected development of industrial products prices increased by 3 p.p. to 10. A price increase is expected mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products, food and machinery and equipment n.e.c. Prices will be decreased mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products. Compared with the previous month, the situation remained unchanged when the balance of the employment rose by 15 p.p. to 9. An increase in the number of employees is expected mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products, electrical equipment and transport equipment; by size groups in enterprises employing 20 to 99 people and by regions, in Žilina and Bratislava. On the contrary, a decrease in the number of employees is expected mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel.

When evaluating the factors limiting the growth of industrial production, 42 % of respondents reported an insufficient demand and 20 % shortage of employees, 19 % lack of production facilities and raw materials and 15 % financial constraints. 27 % of respondents do not feel any limiting factors. Production capacity dropped by 11 p.p. to 7. The majority of respondents consider their current production capacity as sufficient. Based on orders, companies have reserved work for 5 months, on average, while production is ensured mostly in manufacture of electrical equipment and machinery and equipment n.e.c. Industrial companies use production capacity to 83 %, on average. Over the last three months period, according to the response of respondents, the production demand on the basis of new orders, had an upward trend, the overall balance increased by 3 points, compared with the corresponding period. The greatest increase was in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products and in electrical equipment. Compared with the last quarter, the balance of the expected export rose by 19 points. An increase of foreign orders is expected by respondents mainly in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products. According to the survey, the position of enterprises in the domestic competitive environment improved compared to the previous quarter, when the balance rose by 12 points to 5. In foreign markets within the EU, the balance decreased by 2 p.p. b. to -1 and in non-EU markets the balance rose by 1 point to -1.


Note: *In April 2020, 462 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole industry.
The values of the confidence indicator in industry and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic) however, the balance of the finished goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.

 

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