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Industrial confidence indicator in June 2020

Industrial confidence indicator in June 2020

Last update: 29.06.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.06.2020


In June, the confidence indicator in industry increased by 18,7 p.p. to the value -10. The development of the indicator was influenced mainly by the increase of the expected production over the next three months and by the increase of orders.

In June, the industrial production trend remained at the same level as in May (-77). A decrease was registered mainly in the chemical industry, in manufacture of textiles and apparel and food. On the contrary, an increase of industrial production was reported only by respondents in manufacture of wood and paper products, transport equipment and in other manufacture, repair and installations. The balance of the aggregate orders increased by 24 p.p. to -45. An increase of orders (weighted by production) was recorded more considerably in manufacture of transport equipment, in the chemical industry and in manufacture of wood and paper products. A decrease of orders was mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel and machinery and equipment n.e.c. The balance of foreign orders increased by 22 p.p. to -36, compared with May. An increase of foreign orders was reported mainly in manufacture of transport equipment, in the chemical industry and in manufacture of wood and paper products. On the contrary, a decrease of foreign orders was reported mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel and machinery and equipment n.e.c. The share of respondents considering the level of foreign orders to be sufficient increased only to 58 %. In June, the balance of the finished goods stock increased by 5 p.p. to 9. An increase of the stock of goods is expected mainly by respondents in manufacture of transport equipment, machinery and equipment n.e.c and basic metal and fabricated metal products. A decrease of the goods stock was reported mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel, in the chemical industry and in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products. The majority of respondents (84 %) consider the stock to be sufficient. Compared with the previous month, the balance of the industrial production over the next three months, increased by 37 p.p. to 24. An increase of the production is assumed mainly in manufacture of other non-metallic products, wood and paper products and electrical equipment; by size groups, in enterprises employing 100 to 249 people and by regions in Trenčín and Bratislava. In June, the balance of the expected development of prices of industrial products decreased by 2 p.p. to -13. A price drop is assumed mainly in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products and wood and paper products. A price rise is expected in manufacture of pharmaceutical products, in the chemical industry and in manufacture of food. In June compared with May, the balance of the employment  decreased by 4 p.p. to -34, representing the lowest value since July 2009. A decrease of the number of employees is expected mainly in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.; by size groups in enterprises employing 1000 and more people and by regions in Žilina and Trnava. On the contrary, an increase of the employment is assumed mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products and electrical equipment. 59 % of respondents expect a stabilization of employment.



Note: *In June 2020, 486 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole industry. The values of the confidence indicator in industry and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic) however, the balance of the finished goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Data are seasonally adjusted.

 

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