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Trade confidence indicator in March 2021

Trade confidence indicator in March 2021

Last update: 30.03.2021
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 30.03.2021

In March compared with February, confidence indicator in trade rose by 2 percentage points (p.p.) to 3,0. The increase was affected mainly by the positive evaluations of the current, as well as the expected business activities (from seasonally adjusted data). A more significant growth of the indicator was hampered by the higher goods stock.

Only 28 % of respondents assessed the trend in business activities over the past three months as unfavourable, which is by 5 p.p. less than in February. The seasonally adjusted balance (4) increased by 7 p.p. compared with the previous month. Positive evaluations (weighted by turnover) prevail mainly in the sector of retail trade in non-specialised stores (prevailingly supermarkets) and in retail sale of ICT equipment in specialised stores. Negative trends prevail in enterprises employing 50 to 99 people and in by regions, in Trenčín.  The level of stock (5)  increased month-on-month by 4 p.p., though 92 % of respondents assess it to be normal to the season.

38 % of respondents plan to increase requirements for suppliers (by  6 p.p. more than in the survey conducted in February), 15 % of respondents reported a decrease (by 2 p.p. less) and 47 % of enterprises assume a stabilised development. Compared with February, the final seasonally adjusted balance (14) decreased by 1 p.p. in this indicator.  Respondents will increase orders in retail sale of automotive fuel and in stores with other household goods. A similar trend is assumed by enterprises employing 100 and more people and by regions mainly in Nitra and Bratislava.

When evaluating the expected business activities over the next three months, optimism continued to grow. Compared with February, the seasonally adjusted balance (14) rose by 3 p.p. The growth of the business activities over the next three months is expected mainly in retail sale in non-specialised stores and in retail sale with other goods in specialised stores. By size groups, in enterprises employing 100 and more people and in all regions, except Žilina and Banská Bystrica.

The enterprises evaluated the employment development  more favourably than in February, and expect a higher number of employees. The seasonally adjusted balance was higher by 10 p.p. (7) compared with February. There was a lower share of respondents (77 %) not considering any changes, who are expecting an employment growth (17 %). Mainly enterprises in sale of ICT equipment in specialised stores and in retail sale in non-specialised stores expect a higher number of employees. A similar trend is expected by enterprises employing 100 and more people and by regions, in Bratislava.

Compared with the previous periods, the evaluation of the expected development of prices changed, 26 % of respondents (by 12 p.p. more than in February) assume an increase of goods prices. The final seasonally adsjuted balance (16) rose by 9 p.p., compared with February. A price increase is assumed mainly by respondents in retail sale of automotive fuel, in retail sale in non-specialised stores and in retail sale of food in specialised stores. The highest share of respondents expecting an increase of goods prices is in enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and by regions, in Banská Bystrica.


Note: * In March 2021 326 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade. The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.
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