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Industrial confidence indicator in December 2020

Industrial confidence indicator in December 2020

Last update: 28.12.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 28.12.2020

In December, the confidence indicator in industry decreased by 7,3 p.p. to -0,3 after seasonal adjustment. The development of the indicator was influenced mainly by the deteriorated trend of industrial production over the next three months and the increase of the goods stock.

In December compared with November, the industrial production trend rose by 3 p.p. to 27. An increase was registered mainly in manufacture of transport equipment, food and other non-metallic products. On the contrary, a decrease of the industrial production was reported by respondents in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. and in other manufacture, repair and installations. The balance of the aggregate orders increased by 5 p.p. to -10. An improvement of the level of orders (weighted by production) was recorded more significantly in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products, textiles and apparel. A deterioration was mainly in other manufacture, repair and installations. Compared with November, the balance of foreign orders rose by 4 p.p. to -12. An improvement of the level of foreign orders was reported mainly in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products and textiles and apparel. On the contrary, a deterioration was recorded mainly in manufacture of other non-metallic products. The share of respondents considering the level of foreign orders to be sufficient fell to 64 %. In December, the balance of the finished goods stock increased by 3 p.p. to 1. An increase of the stock is expected by respondents mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel. The majority of respondents (96 %) consider the stock to be sufficient. Compared with the previous month, the balance of the industrial production over the next three months, decreased by 24 p.p. to 20. A lower production is expected mainly in manufacture of electrical equipment, transport equipment and computer, electronic and optical products; by size groups, in enterprises employing 1000 and more people and by regions, mainly in Žilina and Prešov. An increase of the production is assumed mainly in manufacture of other non-metalic products and wood and paper products. In December, the balance of the expected development of industrial products prices decreased by 5 p.p. to -3. A price drop is assumed mainly in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. An increase of prices was reported mainly in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products. In December compared with November, the balance of the employment rose by 8 p.p. to -1. An increase in the number of employees is expected mainly in manufacture of other non-metallic products, basic metal and fabricated metal products and computer, electronic and optical products; by size groups, in enterprises employing 1000 and more people and by regions, mainly in Banská Bystrica. On the contrary, a decrease of the employment is assumed mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel; by regions, in Žilina. 67 % of respondents expect a stabilisation of employment.


* In December 2020, 466 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole industry.

The values of the confidence indicator in industry and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic) however, the balance of the finished goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.

The survey was conducted from 1 to 18 December, and perceptions of the current situation and expectations of entrepreneurs were therefore only partially captured in the dynamically changing situation associated with the tightening of measures against the spread of coronavirus.

 

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