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Trade confidence indicator in June 2020

Trade confidence indicator in June 2020

Last update: 29.06.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.06.2020

In June, confidence indicator in trade (-1) remained unchanged compared with May, when the positive evaluations of the expected business activities and the decrease of the goods stock were eliminated by the drop of the current business activities over the last three months.

55 % of respondents assessed the trend in business activities over the past three months as favourable or unchanged. The seasonally adjusted balance (-16) decreased by 19 p.p. compared with May. Negative evaluations (weighted by turnover) prevail in all sectors of retail trade, except retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 100 and more people and in all regions, except Nitra, Žilina and Banská Bystrica. The level of stock (5) decreased by 1 p.p. month-on-month and 89 % of respondents assess it to be normal to the season. 33 % of respondents plan to increase requirements for suppliers (by 1 % more than in the survey conducted in May), 15 % reported a decrease (by 16 % less) and 52 % of enterprises expect a stabilised development (by 15 % more). The final seasonally adjusted balance (13) increased by 16 p.p. in this indicator. In spite of that, respondents will decrease orders in all sectors of retail trade, except the retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco and automotive fuel and in retail sale of other goods, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and with 100 and more people and by regions in Trenčín and Banská Bystrica. When evaluating the expected business activities over the next three months, compared with the previous month, respondents were more optimistic, therefore the balance in June (18) increased by 18 p.p. An increase of business activities is expected by 42 % of enterprises (by 13 % more than in the survey conducted in May), 42 % of enterprises assume a stable development (by 1 % less) and 16 % of respondents expect a decrease (by 12 % less). In spite of that, negative evaluations prevail in all sectors of retail trade, except the retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco, retail sale of automotive fuel, retail sale of other goods, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and 100 and more people and in all regions, except Trenčín, Banská Bystrica and Prešov. Compared with May, an increase is assumed in the employment development, the seasonally adjusted balance increased by 2 p.p. to 4. The majority of respondents (79 %) do not expect any changes, 11 % expect an increase in the number of employees and 10 % expect a decrease of employment. In spite of that, employees are not expected to be hired in all retail trade sectors, except retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco and in all size groups, except enterprises employing 100 and more people. In territorial terms, the number of employees will not be increased in all regions, except Bratislava, Trenčín, Banská Bystrica and Prešov. When evaluating the expected development of prices, the majority of respondents (84 %) assume it will remain unchanged, which is by 12 % more than in the previous month. An increase of prices is assumed by 9 % of respondents (by 1 % less than in the survey conducted in May) and a decrease by 7 % of enterprises (by 11 % less). The final balance (3) increased by 10 p.p. compared with the previous month. A price increase is expected by respondents in all sectors of retail trade, except the repair of motor vehicles, by size groups, in enterprises employing 11 to 19 people. In territorial terms, a price increase is assumed by respondents in all regions, except Bratislava, Trenčín and Banská Bystrica.

Note: * In June 2020 367 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade. The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Data are seasonally adjusted.

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