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Economic sentiment indicator in July 2020

Economic sentiment indicator in July 2020

Last update: 29.07.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.07.2020

In July, the seasonally adjusted three-months moving average of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI), after the historic fall over the last three months, increased again by 9,7 points to 74,5. The confidence significantly increased in services, more considerably in industry. Among consumers and in construction, it increased only slightly. In spite of that, it slightly deteriorated in trade. ESI is currently lagging behind the long-term average by 20,8 points and it is below the value of the corresponding period last year by 28,8 points.

In July, the confidence indicator in industry increased by 5 percentage points (p. p.) to the value -5 (from seasonally adjusted data). The development of the indicator was influenced mainly by the expected increase of the production over the next three months. In July compared with the previous month, the confidence indicator in construction increased by 0,5 points to -37,0 due to more favourable evaluations of the overall level of orders (from seasonally adjusted data). The current result is below the long-term average by 13 points. In July compared with June, confidence indicator in trade dropped by 0,3 p. p. to -1,3 due to negative evaluations of the expected business activities and the stock of goods (from seasonally adjusted data). In July, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in services increased more considerably, its value (-8) rose by 30 percentage points compared with June, thus approaching the pre-April values again. The indicator´s development was affected by positive evaluations of all its three components.

At the beginning of July, the consumer mood in Slovakia was again slightly more optimistic for the third consecutive months, after a fall in April. The seasonally adjusted indicator of consumer confidence, increased month-on-month by 1,1 points to -34,4. Respondents were more optimistic in all the four indicator components, mostly in the expectations of the unemployment development and slightly less in the expectations of the general economic situation. In the expectations of the financial situation of households and the saving perspectives of households they were only slightly optimistic. Compared with the situation last year, the respondents were more pessimistic by 30,3 points and the current result is below the long-term average by 15,4 points.


Note: The values of the confidence indicator range from -100 (responses of all respondents are maximally pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are maximally optimistic). Data are seasonally adjusted.

 

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