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Economic sentiment indicator in June 2020

Economic sentiment indicator in June 2020

Last update: 29.06.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.06.2020

In June compared with the value of the previous month, the seasonally adjusted three-months moving average of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) decreased by 7,4 points to 64,8 which represents the lowest recorded value of the indicator since the beginning of the survey. The current decrease of the indicator reflects the fall of current sentiment, compared with the situation in March and before the introduction of precautionary measures against the spread of the coronavirus, declared by the SR government. In June, the confidence increased mainly in industry and services, significantly in construction and slightly also among consumers. In trade, it remained stable. ESI is currently lagging behind the long-term average by 38,5 points and behind the value of the corresponding period last year by 30,1 points.

In June, the confidence indicator in industry increased by 18,7 percentage points to the value -10. The development of the indicator was influenced mainly by the increase of the expected production over the next three months and by the increase of orders. In June compared with the previous month, the confidence indicator in construction increased by 9,5 points to -37,5 due to more favourable evaluations of the expected employment and the overall level of orders. The current result is below the long-term average by 23 points. In June, confidence indicator in trade (-1) remained unchanged compared with May, when the positive evaluations of the expected business activities and the decrease of the goods stock were eliminated by the drop of the current business activities over the last three months. In June, the confidence indicator in services increased after a two-month sharp decline, its value (-38) increased by 14,3 percentage points compared with May. The indicator´s development was affected by positive evaluations of the demand and over the last three months, as well as the expected demand, while the business situation was evaluated negatively by respondents.

At the beginning of June, the consumer mood in Slovakia was again slightly more optimistic than a month ago. The seasonally adjusted indicator of consumer confidence, increased month-on-month by 2,6 points to -35,5. Respondents were more optimistic in three indicator components, mainly in the expectations of the general economic situation and the financial situation of households, slightly less in the expectations of the saving perspectives of households. By contrast, their expectations of the unemployment development slightly deteriorated. Compared with the situation last year, the respondents were more pessimistic by 27,7 points and the current result is below the long-term average by 31,8 points.

 

Note: The values of the confidence indicator range from -100 (responses of all respondents are maximally pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are maximally optimistic). Data are seasonally adjusted.

 

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