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Trade confidence indicator in May 2020

Trade confidence indicator in May 2020

Last update: 28.05.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 28.05.2020

In May compared with April, confidence indicator in trade increased by 2,3 percentage points (p.p.) to -1,0 as a result of positive evaluations of the expected business situations.

65 % of respondents assessed the trend in business activities over the past three months as favourable or unchanged. The seasonally adjusted balance (3) decreased by 15 p.p. compared with April. Negative evaluations (weighted by turnover) prevail in all sectors of retail trade, except retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 100 and more people and in all regions, except Bratislava, Nitra, Žilina and Prešov. The level of stock (6) remained unchanged month-on-month and 88 % of respondents assess it to be normal to the season. 32 % of respondents plan to increase requirements for suppliers (by 9 % more than in the survey conducted in April), 31 % reported a decrease (by 17 % less) and 37 % of enterprises expect a stabilised development (by 8 % more). The final seasonally adjusted balance (-3) increased by 19 p.p. in this indicator. In spite of that, respondents will increase orders in all sectors of retail trade, except the retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and 100 and more people, in all regions, except Bratislava, Nitra, Žilina and Prešov. When evaluating the expected business activities over the next three months, compared with the previous month, respondents were more optimistic, therefore the balance in May (0) increased by 22 p.p. An increase of business activities is expected by 29 % of enterprises (by 9 % more than in the survey conducted in April), 43 % of enterprises assume a stable development (by 10 % more) and 28 % of respondents expect a decrease (by 19 % less). In spite of that, negative evaluations prevail in all sectors of retail trade, except the retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and 100 and more people and in all regions, except Bratislava and Žilina. Compared with April, an increase is assumed in the employment development, the seasonally adjusted balance increased by 8 p.p. to 2. The majority of respondents (78 %) do not expect any changes, 12 % expect a decrease in the number of employees and 10 % expect an increase of employment. Employees are not expected to be hired in all retail trade sectors, except retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco and in all size groups, except enterprises employing 100 and more people. In territorial terms, the number of employees will not be increased in all regions, except Žilina and Prešov. When evaluating the expected development of prices, the majority of respondents (72 %) assume it will remain unchanged, which is by 5 % less than in the previous month. An increase of prices is assumed by 10 % of respondents (by 2 % more than in the survey conducted in April) and a decrease by 18 % of enterprises (by 3 % more). The final balance (-7) decreased by 6 p.p. compared with the previous month. A price decrease is expected by respondents in all sectors of retail trade, except the retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco an in all size groups. In territorial terms, a price increase is assumed by respondents in all regions, except Bratislava, Trnava and Prešov.

Respondents were contacted after the 1st phase of the release of measures to combat the spread of coronavirus, and during the data collection, the 2nd and 3rd phases of the release of measures were announced (on 6 May 2020). The previous survey in April took place before the announcement of the first phase of the release of measures on 22 April 2020.

Note: * In May 2020 363 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade. The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Data are seasonally adjusted.

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  • Statistical Office of the SR
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  • Slovak Republic
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