Confidence in the Slovak economy in January did not maintain the growth from the end of last year
Pessimism prevailed especially among consumers, while their concerns increased mainly in connection with the creation of savings, the development of the general economic situation, as well as the overall financial situation of their households. The mood also deteriorated among entrepreneurs in industry and services.
After a two-month improvement in mood at the end of last year, it deteriorated again among entrepreneurs. The economic sentiment indicator (ESI) dropped by 4.7 points to the level of 101.9. The mood deteriorated in three out of the five components of the indicator. Pessimism increased the most among entrepreneurs in industry, but entrepreneurs in services and consumers also evaluated the situation more negatively. Consumers in construction and trade showed a slight increase in optimism. Compared to last year, the economic mood was only slightly more favorable, i.e. by 1 point, it was further away from the long-term average by 4.1 points.
The economic mood is measured by five sub-indicators, which express the expectations and confidence of entrepreneurs in four sectors (industry, construction, trade and services) and consumers. Partial indicators range from -100 points (maximum pessimistic answers) to +100 points (maximum optimistic answers).
The confidence indicator in industry (from seasonally adjusted data) decreased by 7.7 points to -1 in January. The development of the indicator was influenced by the drop in expected production for the next three months. The biggest pessimists were respondents in other manufacture, repair and installation, and manufacture of pharmaceutical products.
In January, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in services dropped by 3.6 points to 10.7 points. Entrepreneurs have noticed a drop in demand over the past three months, and the business situation also deteriorated. The largest decrease in demand was recorded by Information and communication. The business situation deteriorated, especially in administrative support services.
The decline in consumer confidence in the Slovak economy from the second half of last year continued in the first month of the new year. Compared to December, their mistrust increased by 2.6 points. The consumer confidence indicator (seasonally adjusted) dropped to -23.4, which is the lowest in the last 20 months. The indicator is 3.5 points below the long-term average. Consumers were more pessimistic in three out of the four components of the indicator, the last component did not change month-on-month. Concerns about savings have grown the most among consumers. However, they viewed the development of the general economic situation as well as the overall financial situation of their households more pessimistically. They perceive the development of unemployment similarly as last month.
The confidence indicator in trade January rose by 1.3 points compared to December to a value of 12.3. The respondents positively evaluated the decrease in the stock of goods and expect higher business activities. Optimistic expectations of business activities for the next three months prevailed mostly among respondents in sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories.
In January, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in construction rose by 1.5 points to -6.5 compared to the previous month, due to more favorable evaluations of expected employment, primarily in enterprises performing engineering constructions and specialized construction work.