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Trade confidence indicator in February 2020

Trade confidence indicator in February 2020

Last update: 27.11.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 27.02.2020

In February compared with January, confidence indicator in trade decreased by 5 percentage points (p.p.) to 24,0 as a result of negative evaluations of the current and the expected business activities.

93 % of respondents assessed the trend in business activities over the past three months as favourable or unchanged. The seasonally adjusted balance (37) decreased by 7 p.p. compared with January. In spite of that positive evaluations (weighted by turnover) prevail in all sectors of retail trade, except repair of motor vehicles, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and in all regions except Trenčín. The level of stock (4) did not change month-on-month and 94 % of respondents assess it to be normal to the season. 43 % of respondents plan to increase orders (by 6 % more than in the survey conducted in January), 7 % reported a decrease (by 10 % less) and 50 % of enterprises expect a stabilised development (by 4 % more). The final seasonally adjusted balance (40) increased by 5 p.p. in this indicator. In spite of that, respondents will increase orders in all sectors of retail trade, in all size groups and regions. When evaluating the expected business activities over the next three months, compared with the previous month, respondents were more pessimistic, therefore the balance in February (39) decreased by 8 p.p. A decrease of business activities is expected by 7 % of enterprises (by 4 % less than in the survey conducted in January), 51 % of enterprises assume a stable development (by 5 % more) and 42 % of respondents expect an increase (by 1 % less). In spite of that, positive evaluations prevail in all sectors of retail trade, in all size groups and regions except Trenčín. Compared with January, a decrease is assumed in the employment development, the seasonally adjusted balance decreased by 3 p.p. to 29. In spite of that, the majority of respondents (68 %) do not expect any changes, 28 % expect an increase in the number of employees and 4 % expect the decrease of employment. The number of employees will be increased in all sectors of retail trade, except the repair of motor vehicles, retail sale of automotive fuels and in all size groups, except enterprises employing 20 to 49 people. In territorial terms, the number of employees will be increased in all regions, except Trnava and Trenčín. When evaluating the expected development of prices, the majority of respondents (73 %) assume it will remain unchanged, which is by 2 % more than in the previous month. An increase of prices is assumed by 24 % of respondents (by 2 % less than in the survey conducted in January) and a decrease by 3 % of enterprises (unchanged situation). The final balance (22) decreased by 2 p.p. compared with the previous month. In spite of that, a price increase is expected by respondents in all sectors of retail trade, except repair of motor vehicles and retail trade of automotive fuel, in all size groups and in all regions.


Note: * In February 2020 409 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade. The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Data are seasonally adjusted.

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