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Trade confidence indicator in October 2019

Trade confidence indicator in October 2019

Last update: 29.10.2019
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.10.2019

In October compared with September, confidence indicator in trade decreased by 2,7 percentage points (p.p.) to 20 as a result of negative evaluations of the current business activities and the stock of goods.

90 % of respondents assessed the trend in business activities over the past three months as favourable or unchanged.  The seasonally adjusted balance (31) decreased by 5 p.p. compared with September. In spite of that, positive evaluations (weighted by turnover) prevail in all sectors of retail trade, except the sale of motor vehicles, in all size groups and regions. The level of stock (6) increased month-on-month by 3 p.p. and 90 % of respondents assess it to be normal to the season. 48 % of respondents plan to increase orders (by 4 % more than in the survey conducted in September), 12 % reported a decrease (by 3 % less) and 40 % of enterprises expect a stabilised development (by 1 % less). The final seasonally adjusted balance (31) in this indicator increased by 6 p.p. in this indicator. Respondents will increase orders in all sectors of retail trade, in all size groups except enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and in all regions, except Banská Bystrica. When evaluating the expected business activities over the next three months, no changes occurred compared with the previous month, therefore the balance in October (35) remained unchanged. An increase of business activities is expected by 49 % of enterprises (by 3 % more than in the survey conducted in September), 40 % of enterprises assume a stable development (by 8 % less) and 11 % of respondents expect a decrease (by 5% more). Positive evaluations prevail in all sectors of retail trade, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and in all regions. Compared with September, a decrease in the employment development is assumed, the seasonally adjusted balance decreased by 1 p.p. to 20. The majority of respondents (56 %) do not expect any changes, 35 % expect an increase in the number of employees and 9 % expect the decrease of employment. In spite of that an increased number of employees is planned in all sectors of retail trade, except the sale of motor vehicles, retail trade of automotive fuels and in all size groups except enterprises employing 11 to 49 people. In territorial terms, the number of employees will be increased in all regions, except Trnava, Trenčín and Banská Bystrica. When evaluating the expected development of prices, the majority of respondents (76 %) assume it will remain unchanged, which is by 2 % more than in the previous month. An increase of prices is assumed by 21 % of respondents (by 2 % less than in the survey conducted in September) and a decrease by 3 % of enterprises (unchanged situation). The final balance (20) increased by 1 p.p. compared with the previous month. A price increase is expected by respondents in all sectors of retail trade except repair of motor vehicles, in all size groups and in all regions.

Note: * In October 2019 393 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade. The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Data are seasonally adjusted.

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