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Industrial confidence indicator in October 2019

Industrial confidence indicator in October 2019

Last update: 29.10.2019
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.10.2019

In October, the confidence indicator in industry decreased by 13,3 p.p.(percentage points - p.p.) to the value    -12,3. The development of the indicator was influenced the most significantly by the expected decrease of production over the next three months.

Compared with the previous month, the industrial production trend increased by 6 p.p. to -11. An increase was recorded mainly in manufacture of transport equipment, machinery and equipment n.e.c. and other non-metallic products. A decrease was not observed in any of the industrial sectors. Compared with September, the business balance of the aggregate orders decreased by (3 p.p. to -19). A more significant decrease of orders was recorded mainly in manufacture of pharmaceutical products, machinery and equipment n.e.c. and in the chemical industry. An increase of orders was reported, on the contrary, mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products and basic metal and fabricated metal products. 81 % respondents consider the current level of orders to be sufficient. The balance of foreign orders decreased by 3 p.p. to -21.  The level of orders decreased mostly in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., in other manufacture, repair and installations and in the chemical industry. On the contrary, there was an increase in manufacture of pharmaceutical products, food and basic metal and fabricated metal products. 80% of exporting respondents consider the level of foreign orders to be sufficient. In October compared with September, the balance of the finished goods stock remained at the same level (1). A decrease of the stock of goods was reported mainly in manufacture of textiles and apparel. The stock increased mainly in manufacture of pharmaceutical products, food and other non-metallic products. 97 % of respondents consider the total stock to be sufficient. In October compared with September, the balance of the industrial production over the next three months, decreased by 37 p.p. to -17. The greatest pessimists were respondents in manufacture of transport equipment, in the chemical industry and in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, by size groups in enterprises employing 1000 and more people and by regions mainly in Bratislava and Žilina. An increase of the production is assumed only in manufacture of wood and paper products and in machinery and equipment n.e.c. Over the next three-month period compared with September, the balance of the expected development of industrial products prices, decreased by 4 p.p. to -8. A price decrease is expected in the majority of sectors, mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, in other manufacture, repair and installations and in manufacture of basic metal and fabricated metal products. A price increase is considered by respondents, mainly in manufacture of pharmaceutical products and wood and paper products. Over the next three-month period, the majority of enterprises (88 %) do not expect any changes in the price level of their own products. Compared with the situation in the previous month, the situation of the employment development improved when the balance increased by 4 p.p. to -20. A higher number of employees is assumed mainly in manufacture of transport equipment, wood and paper products, food and machinery and equipment n.e.c., by size groups in enterprises employing 500 to 999 people. On the contrary, a decrease is expected mainly in other manufacture, repair and installation, in manufacture of textiles and apparel and other non-metallic products, by regions in Bratislava and Trnava.

When evaluating the factors limiting the growth of industrial production, 45 % of respondents stated an insufficient demand and 25 % shortage of employees. 26 % of respondents do not feel any hampering factors.

Production capacity decreased by 7 p.p. to 3. The majority of respondents (76 %) consider their current production capacity to be sufficient. Based on orders, enterprises have reserved work for 6 months on average while production is ensured mostly in the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. Industrial companies used production capacities to 85% on average. Over the next three months, based on the respondents´ forecasts, an increase in the development of orders is expected, the overall balance increased by 11 points, compared with the previous month. The largest increase is expected in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, pharmaceutical products and electrical equipment. A decrease of orders is assumed in manufacture of transport equipment, food, chemical industry and in other manufacture, repair and installations. Compared with the previous quarter, the balance of the expected export decreased by 2 points while a decrease of the export is expected mainly in the chemical industry and in other manufacture, repair and installations. An increase of foreign orders is expected by respondents in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products and machinery and equipment n.e.c. Based on the survey results, the position of enterprises in domestic competitive environment slightly improved compared with the previous quarter when the balance increased by 1 point to -1. On foreign markets, inside the EU, the balance decreased by 3 p.p. to 10, on markets outside the EU the balance decreased by 30 points to -16.


Note: *In October 2019, 505 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole industry.
The values of the confidence indicator in industry and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic) however, the balance of the finished goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Data are seasonally adjusted.

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