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Trade confidence indicator in November 2020

Trade confidence indicator in November 2020

Last update: 27.11.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 27.11.2020

 

In November compared with October, confidence indicator in trade dropped by 1,7 percentage point (p. p.) to 1,3 due to negative evaluations of the current business activities (from seasonally adjusted data).

75 % of respondents assessed the trend in business activities over the past three months as favourable or unchanged. The seasonally adjusted balance (0) decreased by 14 p. p. compared with October. Negative evaluations (weighted by turnover) prevail in all sectors of retail sale except retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco, retail sale of other goods, by size groups, in enterprises employing 11 to 99 people and by regions in Trenčín.

 The level of stock (2) decreased month-on-month by 2 p. p. and 93 % of respondents assess it to be normal to the season. 33 % of respondents plan to increase requirements for suppliers (by 2 p. p. less than in the survey conducted in October), 18 % of respondents reported a decrease (by 2 p.p. less) and 49 % of enterprises assume a stabilised development (by 4 p. p. more). The final seasonally adjusted balance (16) increased by 6 p. p. in this indicator. Respondents will increase orders in retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco and in retail sale of other goods, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and in all regions except Trenčín and Košice. When evaluating the expected business activities over the next three months, respondents were more optimisric than last month, therefore the balance in November (6) increased by 7 p. p. An increase of business activities is expected by 22 % of enterprises (by 2 p. p. less than in the survey conducted in October), 61 % of enterprises assume a stable development (by 8 p. p. more) and 17 % of respondents expect a decrease (by 6 p. p. less). Positive evaluations prevail in retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco and in retail sale of other goods, by size groups, in enterprises employing 100 and more people and in all regions, except Trenčín, Prešov and Košice. Compared with October, a worsened situation is assumed in the employment development, the seasonally adjusted balance dropped by 1 p. p. to -4. The majority of respondents (88 %) do not expect any changes, 7 % expect an increase in the number of employees and 5 % expect a decrease of employment. Employees are not expected to be hired in all retail trade sectors, except retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco, in all size groups, except enterprises employing 100 and more people. In territorial terms, the number of employees will not be increased in all regions, except Bratislava, Trnava, Žilina and Banská Bystrica. When evaluating the expected development of prices, the majority of respondents (86 %) assume it will remain unchanged, which is by 3 p. p. more than in the previous month. An increase of prices is assumed by 9 % of respondents (by 4 p. p. less than in the survey conducted in October) and a decrease by 5 % of enterprises (by 1 p. p. more). The final balance (4) decreased by 5 p. p. compared with the previous month. A price decrease is expected by respondents in all sectors of retail trade, except the retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco, retail sale of other goods, by size groups in enterpirses employing 11 to 49 people. In territorial terms, a price decrease is assumed by respondents in Trenčín and Košice.


Note: *In November 2020 370 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade.
The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.

 

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