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Trade confidence indicator in February 2021
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Trade confidence indicator in February 2021

Last update: 25.11.2021
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 25.02.2021


In February compared with January, confidence indicator in trade dropped by 1 percentage point (p.p.) to 1,0. The drop was affected mainly by the negative evaluations of the current, similarly the expected business activities (from seasonally adjusted data).

33 % of respondents assessed the trend in business activities over the past three months as unfavourable, which is by 6 p.p. more than in January. The seasonally adjusted balance (-3) decreased by 1 p.p. compared with the previous month. Negative evaluations (weighted by turnover) prevail in all assortment types of retail, except retail sale in non-specialized stores (prevailingly supermarkets). Negative trends prevail in enterprises employing 50 to 99 people and by regions in Trenčín.

The level of stock (5) decreased month-on-month by 1 p.p. and 89 % of respondents assess it to be normal to the season.

32 % of respondents plan to increase requirements for suppliers (by 10 p.p. more than in the survey conducted in January), 17 % of respondents reported a decrease (by 7 p.p. less) and 51 % of enterprises assume a stabilised development. Compared with January, the final seasonally adjusted balance (15) increased by 4 p.p. in this indicator.  Respondents will increase orders in retail sale of non-specialized stores and in retail sale of automotive fuel, in enterprises employing 100 and more people, by regions mainly in Nitra and Bratislava.

When evaluating the expected business activities over the next three months, optimism continued to slightly grow again. Compared with January, although the seasonally adjusted balance (11) slightly dropped (by 3 p.p.), but the growth of business activities over the next three months is expected in all assortment types of retail, except retail sale of cultural and recreation goods in specialized stores. By size groups, in enterprises employing 100 and more people and in all regions except Trenčín and Banská Bystrica.

Compared with January, in the employment development, enterprises expect approximately the same situation, the seasonally adjusted balance is lower by 1 p.p. (-3). The majority of respondents (84 %) do not expect any changes, 6 % expect an increase in the number of employees and 10 % expect a decrease of employment. A lower number of employees is expected mainly in sale and repair of motor vehicles and in retail sale of other household goods in specialized stores, in all size groups by the number of employees and in all regions, mainly in Trenčín and Banská Bystrica.

When evaluating the expected development of prices, the majority of respondents (82 %) assume it will remain unchanged, which is by 2 p.p less than in January. An increase of prices is assumed by 14 % of respondents (by 1 p.p. more than in the survey conducted last month) and a decrease by 4 % of enterprises (by 1 p.p. more). Compared with January, the final balance (7) remained unchanged. An increase of prices is expected by respondents in retail sale of automotive fuels and in retail sale of cultural and recreation goods, in enterprises employing 20 to 49 people and by regions, in Trnava.


Note: * In February 2021 325 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade. The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.


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