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Industrial confidence indicator in March 2020

Industrial confidence indicator in March 2020

Last update: 30.03.2020
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 30.03.2020


In March, the confidence indicator in industry decreased by 1,7 p.p. to the value -3. The development of the indicator was unfavourably influenced mainly by the decrease of the expected production over the next three months.

In March compared with February, the industrial production trend decreased by 13 p.p. to -4. A decrease was recorded only in manufacture of electrical equipment, transport equipment and in the chemical industry. On the contrary, an increase of the industrial production was reported mainly by respondents in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, other non-metallic products and textiles and apparel. The balance of the aggregate orders remained at the level of February (-16). A decrease of orders (weighted by production) was recorded mainly in other manufacture, repair and installations, in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products and machinery and equipment n.e.c.  An increase of orders was mainly in manufacture of food and basic metal and fabricated metal products. The majority of respondents (84 %) consider the current level of orders to be sufficient. Compared with February, the balance of foreign orders decreased by 2 p.p. to -16. A decrease of foreign orders was reported mainly in manufacture of transport equipment and in the chemical industry. On the contrary, an increase of foreign orders was mainly in manufacture of food and basic metal and fabricated metal products.  The share of respondents considering the level of foreign orders to be sufficient reached 82 %. In March, the balance of the finished goods stock increased by 1 p.p. to 3. An increase of the stock of goods was reported mainly by respondents in manufacture of food and machinery and equipment. A decrease of the stock of goods was reported mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products and electrical equipment. The majority of respondents (96 %) consider the stock to be sufficient. Compared with the previous month, the balance of the industrial production over the next three months, decreased by 4 p.p. to 10. A decrease of the production is expected mainly in manufacture of other non-metallic products, in the chemical industry and in manufacture of wood and paper products, by size groups in enterprises employing 1000 and more people and by regions, in Bratislava and Trenčín. An increase of the production is assumed mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products and in basic metal and fabricated metal products, by regions in Košice and Trnava. In March, the balance of the expected development of industrial products prices, remained at the level of February (-6). A price increase is expected mainly in manufacture of wood and paper products and food. A price decrease is assumed mainly in manufacture of electrical equipment and computer, electronic and optical products. In March compared with February, the balance of the employment decreased by 1 p.p. to -3. A lower number of employees is assumed mainly in manufacture of electrical equipment and other manufacture, repair and installations, by size groups in enterprises employing 20 to 99 people, and by regions in Banská Bystrica and Prešov. On the contrary, an increase of the number of employees is expected, mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, by regions, in Košice and Nitra. 76 % of respondents expect a stabilization of employment.

The survey was conducted in the first half of March, therefore the impacts of the spread of coronavirus infection and the implementation of preventive measures declared by the Slovak Government during this period are only partially covered in the surveys.


Note: * In March 2020, 501 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole industry. The values of the confidence indicator in industry and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic) however, the balance of the finished goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way.
Data are seasonally adjusted.

 

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