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Trade confidence indicator in October 2021
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Trade confidence indicator in October 2021

Last update: 28.10.2021
Ilustračný obrázok
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 28.10.2021

In October 2021, confidence indicator in trade rose only very slightly to 27,0 (by 1,3 p.p.). Respondents consider the current situation as favourable however due to the expected stricter measures related to the forthcoming wave of the pandemic they are still cautious in assessing the future development.

Respondents' opinions on the trend of business activities over the past three months were less optimistic  than last month. After seasonal adjustment, the balance (35) dropped by 6 percentage points compared with September. Positive evaluations (weighted by turnover) predominate mainly in retail sale of automotive fuel and retail sale of other goods in specialized stores. Positive trends prevail in enterprises with 100 and more people, in the regions of Nitra and Bratislava. Up to 89 % of respondents assess the  level of the goods stock (-6) to be normal to the season.

Compared with September, the level of evaluation of the requirements for suppliers remains almost unchanged, after seasonal adjustment it reached 38 (a growth by 1 p.p.). The opinions of respondents from retail trade of food and beverages in specialized stores contributes mainly to a balanced level. Entrepreneurs in the retail sector with ICT equipment in specialized stores assume lower requirements for suppliers. They also maintained a balanced level in the evaluation of requirements for suppliers in companies with 50 to 99 employees and from regions, especially in Bratislava and Nitra.

Expectations of business activities over the next three months were more optimistic with the approaching end of the year. Despite the further wave of a pandemic and rising commodity and energy prices, respondents asess future developments slightly positively. The seasonally adjusted balance (40) is higher by 5 p.p. The majority of respondents (51 %) expect a stable situation and 45 % of respondents expect an increase in business activities. Positive expectations are expected especially by respondents in retail trade with ICT equipment in specialized stores and traders from the Trnava region.

Employment expectations deteriorated in October. The seasonally adjusted balance (9) is by 5 p.p. lower than in September. As many as 79 % of respondents do not anticipate changes in the number of their employees. Enterprises in retail trade in non-specialized stores, enterprises with 100 and more employees and in the region of Trenčín expect a lower number of employees.

The evaluation trend in the expected development of prices has reversed compared to September, with respondents expecting a rise in commodity prices. The seasonally adjusted balance (38) increased by 10 p.p. Respondents assume an increase in the prices of goods from almost all assortment types of retail, except retail sale of goods for culture and recreation in specialized stores. Growth in commodity prices is anticipated mainly in companies with 20 to 49 employees, and from a regional perspective in the region of Nitra.

Note: *In October 2021 346 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade. The values of the confidence indicator in trade and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic), however, the balance of the goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way.
Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.


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