Farmers expect a lower harvest of densely sown cereals, but yields will remain at the level of the five-year average

The second estimate further reduced the yield of densely sown cereals, especially of wheat and rye. For other densely sown cereals, a higher harvest is expected compared to last year. Corn for grain is expected to achieve a slightly lower production, there should be by a third more potatoes, and the sugar beet harvest should remain at last year's level. Yields per hectare below the five-year average are expected for barley, rye, canola and peas.

This year's harvest of densely sown cereals in Slovakia should be even lower than the first estimates from June of this year indicated (a decrease by 3% compared to June). According to the second estimate of yield, processed by the Statistical Office of the SR as of August 15, 2024, when the majority of cereals, including rapeseed, had already been harvested, the farmers should harvest by 541 000 tons less of densely sown cereals than last year, while the total harvest should reach 2.6 million tons. This is therefore a 17% year-on-year decrease, which was mainly due to significantly lower wheat and rye sowing areas in combination with their lower average yield per hectare. On the contrary, a more significant increase in potato and soybean yields is expected. The estimate of the sunflower, corn and beet harvest will be adjusted in the September´s estimates.

Wheat, oats and triticale above five-year average

Regardless of the total harvest, for wheat, oats and triticale the yield per hectare is expected to be higher than the five-year average. On the contrary, for barley and rye, the yield per hectare is expected to be the value of the five-year average.

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In 2024, the total wheat harvest, which occupies approximately two-thirds of the areas of densely sown cereals, should reach 1.9 million tons, which is by 22% less than last year. The drop in the estimated production by 556,000 tons is primarily caused by the reduction of sowing areas by almost 14% and by the lower yield per hectare by 0.6 tons compared to last year.

The August´s revision slightly reduced the expected barley harvest to 606.2 thousand tons, which is approximately at the level of last year. The expected harvest is the result of the year-on-year increase in sowing areas and the decrease in yield per hectare. A significantly higher harvest is expected for triticale, by almost a quarter compared to last year. The increase was influenced by the expansion of sowing areas and at the same time a slight increase in yield per hectare.

The largest year-on-year increase, up to 60%, is expected for oats. Farmers estimate a harvest at the level of 32.5 thousand  tons due to the expansion of sowing areas, as an increased yield per hectare. On the contrary, the rye harvest should decrease by 23% year-on-year to 27.1 thousand. tons, mainly due to the decrease of sowing areas by almost 30%.

Corn for grain with a slight drop

The production of corn for grain, the second most cultivated crop, should decrease by more than 7% year-on-year, and reach a total volume of 1.03 mil. tons. This decrease is caused by the drop in the average yield per hectare to the level of 6.9 tons, which is almost by 14% less than last year. However, yields per hectare are expected to exceed the five-year average (6.1 tons per hectare). The corn for grain harvest will be specified in September's third estimate of yield.

Rapeseed with a significant decrease, soy with an increased yield

According to the current adjusted estimates, the year-on-year drop in rapeseed production will be even more significant, i.e. rise by 28%, to the level of 387.5 thousand. tons. In addition to the smaller sowing area, mainly due to the lower hectare yield by 2.7 tons. The yield per hectare decreased year-on-year by a quarter and at the same time lagged behind the five-year average by 14%.

Higher production by almost 28% compared to last year is expected for the soybean harvest. It should reach a volume of 165.7 thousand tons, mainly as a result of the almost 36% increase in sowing areas. Yields at the level of 2.5 tons per hectare should be approximately the same as last year.

In case of sunflower, the harvest should be slightly lower than last year, in the amount of 166 thousand tons, despite the 6.5% increase in sowing areas.

Significantly higher potato harvest, sugar beet at last year's level

The areas for growing potatoes increased slightly this year compared to last year. However, a significant year-on-year increase in yields per hectare is expected, i.e. by 16% to 29.1 tons per hectare. Compared to the five-year average, this year's yields per hectare of potatoes will be higher by up to 49.5%. Thus the total potato harvest should increase by a third year-on-year reaching 143.4 thousand. tons.

The production of technical sugar beet is expected to be approximately the same as last year, at the level of 1.4 million. tons. Despite the year-on-year decrease, the average yield of 58.9 tons per hectare would significantly exceed the level of the five-year average. Technical sugar beet was sown in 2024 on 8% larger area than last year.

The area of peas sown (edible and fodder together) decreased by almost 5% compared to last year. The expected lower yields per hectare, which are currently 29% below five-year averages, will be reflected into a 22% year-on-year decline in total production. The pea harvest should be reduced to 24.1 thousand. tons.