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Trade confidence indicator in July 2019

Trade confidence indicator in July 2019

Last update: 29.07.2019
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 29.07.2019

In July compared with June, confidence indicator in trade (19,7) remained unchanged when the growth of the current business activities and the decrease of the stock of goods were eliminated by the negative evaluations of the expected business activities over the next three months.

93 % of respondents assessed the trend in business activities over the past three months as favourable or unchanged.  The seasonally adjusted balance (36) increased by 6 p.p. compared with June. Positive evaluations (weighted by turnover) prevail in all sectors of retail trade, in all size groups and regions except Trenčín. The level of stock (7) decreased by 7 p.p. month-on-month and 93 % of respondents assess it to be normal to the season. 39 % of respondents plan to increase orders (by 4 % less than in the survey conducted in June), 9 % reported a decrease (by 5 % more) and 52 % of enterprises expect a stabilised development (by 1 % less). The final seasonally adjusted balance (29) in this indicator decreased by 6 p.p. in this indicator. In spite of that, respondents will increase orders in all sectors of retail trade, except sale of motor vehicles, in all size groups and in all regions, except Trenčín. Compared with the previous month, respondents were more pessimistic when evaluating the expected business activities over the next three months, therefore in July, the balance (30) decreased by 13 p.p. In spite of that, positive evaluations prevail in all sectors of retail trade, except sale of motor vehicles, in all size groups and regions. Compared with June, a decrease in the employment development is assumed, the seasonally adjusted balance decreased by 4 p.p. to 10. The majority of respondents (70 %) do not expect any changes, 24 % expect an increase in the number of employees and 6 % expect the decrease of employment. In spite of that, the number of employees will be increased in all sectors of retail trade and in all size groups. In territorial terms, the number of employees will be increased in all regions, except Trenčín. When evaluating the expected development of prices, the majority of respondents (68 %) assume it will remain unchanged, which is by 4 % more than in the previous month. A price increase is assumed by 29 % of respondents (by 3 % less than in the survey conducted in June) and a decrease by 3 % of enterprises (by 1 % less). The final balance (26) decreased by 1 p.p. compared with the previous month. In spite of that, respondents assume a price increase in all sectors of retail sale, except repair of motor vehicles, in all size groups and regions.

Note: * In July 2019 405 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole trade.

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