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Economic sentiment indicator in February 2019

Economic sentiment indicator in February 2019

Last update: 28.02.2019
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 28.02.2019

In February compared with the value of the previous month, the three-months moving average of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) increased by 1 point to the level 98,4, mainly due to an increased confidence among consumers and in industry in the current survey and the favourable development of confidence in services over the past months. In February, confidence in construction had a stable development, while in trade and services it slightly decreased. ESI is currently lagging behind the long-term average by 5,2 points and behind the value of the corresponding period last year by 3,4 points.

In February, the confidence indicator in industry increased by 3,7 percentage points (p.p.) to the value 3,7. The development of the indicator was favourably influenced by the increase of the expected production over the next three months. In February, the confidence indicator in construction remained at the level of the previous month (-11,5) when the unfavourable development of the overall level of order books was eliminated by the favourable evaluations of the expected employment. The current result is exceeding the long-term average by 13,5 points. In February compared with January, confidence indicator in trade decreased by 2 p. p. to 17,3 as a result of negative evaluations of the current and also the expected business activities and the stock of goods. In February, the confidence indicator in services decreased, compared with the previous month, its value was lower by 1,3 p. p. and reached the level -1,3. The indicator´s development was affected by negative evaluations of the demand over the last three months, while the expected demand and the business situation were evaluated positively by respondents.

Following the last year´s deterioration, the consumer mood in Slovakia has improved. In February, the seasonally adjusted indicator of consumer confidence, increased by 2,9 points to -5,0, due to the increased confidence in all its components, mainly the expected development of the financial situation of households and the expected development of the economic situation in the SR, as well as the expected unemployment in the SR and the saving perspectives. Respondents were more pessimistic by 0,9 points than in the corresponding period last year and the current result is exceeding the long-term average.

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