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Economic sentiment indicator in January 2021

Economic sentiment indicator in January 2021

Last update: 28.01.2021
Ilustratívny obrázok/Illustrative image
Publisher: Headquarters Bratislava
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 28.01.2021

In January, the economic sentiment in Slovakia was more pessimistic than a month ago. The seasonally adjusted economic sentiment indicator (ESI), decreased by 4,8 points to 80,6.  It thus reached the worst value since last June and has moved away significantly from its pre-coronavirus pandemic level. Confidence decreased considerably in services, to a lesser extent among consumers, industry and trade. In construction, it remained at the level of last month. The current value of ESI is lagging behind the value of the corresponding period by 18,6 points and it is  below the long-term average by 21,9 points.

In January, the confidence indicator in industry decreased by 4 percentage point to -4,3 (of seasonally adjusted data). The development of the indicator was influenced by the decrease of orders. In January compared with the previous month, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in construction remained at the level of the previous month (-47,5) when the unfavourable development of evaluations of the expected employment was eliminated by the favourable development of the overall level of orders. The current result is below the long-term average by 23,5 points. In January 2021 compared with December 2020, confidence indicator in trade dropped by 1,3 percentage points o 2,0. The drop was affected mainly by the increase of the goods stock and by the more negative evaluation of the current business activities (from seasonally adjusted data). In January after the previous growth, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in services  decreased again, its value (-24,3) dropped by 7,6 percentage points compared with December. The indicator´s development was affected mainly by more pessimistic expectations of the demand and assessments of the demand over the last three months, while the business situation was evaluated more favourably by the respondents.

At the beginning of January, the consumer mood in Slovakia was more pessimistic than in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted indicator of consumer confidence, decreased by 4,3 points to -36,9, month-on-month. The indicator thus  dropped again to the worst value since last May and it is significantly below the pre-coronavirus pandemic level, but it is relatively far from the worst value in April. Compared to the previous month, respondents were significantly more pessimistic in their expectations of unemployment and, to a lesser extent also in their expectations of the financial situation of households, the general economic situation and household savings. Compared to the situation last year, the respondents were more pessimistic by 25 points and the current result is below the long-term average by 17,1 points.

Since January 2021, due to a more effective presentation of dynamic changes in the sentiment of entrepreneurs and consumers, the published form of the economic sentiment indicator has changed from a three-month moving average to a simple monthly form.

Note: The values of the confidence indicator range from -100 (responses of all respondents are maximally pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are maximally optimistic). Data are seasonally adjusted.

 

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