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Industrial confidence indicator in January 2021
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Industrial confidence indicator in January 2021

Last update: 28.10.2021 | Number of views: 674
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Publisher: Statistical Office of the SR
Topic: Macroeconomic statistics
Domain: Business tendency surveys and consumer opinions
Publish Date: 28.01.2021

In January, the confidence indicator in industry decreased by 4 p.p. (percentage point- p.p.) to -4,3 (of seasonally adjusted data). The development of the indicator was influenced by the decrease of orders.

Compared with the previous month, the industrial production trend rose by 9 p.p. to 36. An increase was registered mainly in manufacture of electrical equipment. The balance of the aggregate orders decreased by 12 p.p. to -22. A deterioration of the level of orders was recorded mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, machinery and equipment n.e.c. and other non-metallic products. An increase of orders was reported mainly by respondents in manufacture of wood and paper products and electrical equipment. The balance of foreign orders dropped by 12 p.p. to -24.  A decrease was registered in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., electronic and optical products, food and textiles. On the contrary, an increase was recorded only in manufacture of electrical equipment. In January compared with December, the balance of the finished goods stock decreased by 4 p.p. to -3. A decrease of the stock was reported mainly in manufacture of pharmaceutical products and other manufacture, repair and installations. On the contrary, the stock increased mainly in manufacture of food.  In January compared with December, the balance of the expected production over the next three months, decreased by 4 p.p. to 6. The greatest pessimists are the respondents in the chemical industry, in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products and in other manufacture, repair and installations; by size groups, in enterprises employing 20 to 99 people and by regions, mainly in Prešov and Trnava. Over the next three months period, the balance of the expected development of industrial products prices decreased by 10 p.p. to -13. A price drop is assumed mainly in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products and transport equipment. The prices in manufacture of pharmaceutical products will remain unchanged. Compared with the previous month, the balance of the employment changed, when the balance dropped by 9 p.p. to -10. A decrease in the number of employees is expected mainly in other manufacture, repair and installations, other non-metallic products and in the chemical industry; by size groups, in enterprises employing 500 to 999 people and by regions, in Banská Bystrica and Prešov. On the contrary, an increase of the employment is assumed mainly in manufacture of electrical equipment and textiles.

When evaluating the factors limiting the growth of industrial production, 49 % of respondents reported an insufficient demand and 18 % financial constraints, 17 % shortage of employees and 16 % other reasons. 24 % of respondents do not feel any limiting factors. Production capacity rose by 3 p.p. to 18. The majority of respondents consider their current production capacity as sufficient. Based on orders, companies have reserved work for 6 months, on average, while production is ensured mostly in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. and in other non-metallic products. Industrial companies use production capacity to 82 %, on average. Over the last three months period, according to the response of respondents, the production demand on the basis of new orders, had a downward trend, the overall balance decreased by 23 points, compared with the corresponding period. The greatest drop was in the chemical industry and in manufacture of machinery and equipment. Compared with the last quarter, the balance of the expected export dropped by 13 points. The decrease of foreign orders is expected by respondents mainly in the chemical industry, in manufacture of textiles and computer, electronic and optical products. According to the survey, the position of enterprises in the domestic competitive environment deteriorated compared to the previous quarter, when the balance fell by 1 point to -2. In foreign markets within the EU, the balance decreased by 4 p.p. b. to 1 and in non-EU markets the balance fell by 2 points to -2.


Note: *In January 2021, 445 respondents were participated in survey which represents the whole industry. The values of the confidence indicator in industry and the balances range from -100 (responses of all respondents are pessimistic) to 100 (responses of all respondents are optimistic) however, the balance of the finished goods stock shall be interpreted in the opposite way. Confidence indicator and balances on republic level are seasonally adjusted.

 

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